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Total retail sales for the holiday season of November and December will grow by 3. That sounds like good news, but it's actually less than the 4. It's not that people are shopping less or not buying as much. Instead, sales totals are being driven down by increased discounting. This holiday season growth rate is also below the expected 3.
Again, that's due at least in part to intense competition between retailers driving prices lower. While it seems like online retailers have taken a huge piece of the market, they only accounted for an estimated 10. In 2017, eMarketer expects online retail sales to grow to 11. Others, such as dollar stores and luxury are doing well. So underneath the generally positive numbers are spots of real turmoil and contraction. In addition, overall growth at physical retailers has slowed.
Digital growth is being pushed by "increases in mobile commerce and the intensifying online battle between large retailers and digital marketplaces," according to eMarketer.
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These predictions indicate that the slow march to more sales moving online continues, but brick-and-mortar retailers still have the vast majority of the business.
That means that while many traditional physical chains will continue to suffer, there's still a significant customer base shopping in actual stores. That creates a challenge for struggling chains like Sears Holdings that may be entering a make-or-break holiday season.
Sears and Kmart need to find ways to get customers into the stores that go beyond price. That's a big challenge for the shrinking company. Chains that can give shoppers a reason to visit -- with discounts, exclusive merchandise, and even in-store events or entertainment -- still have a chance to succeed. That's going to keep getting harder as digital convenience grows, but in 2017 there remains room for some brick-and-mortar chains to grow year-over-year comparable-store sales.
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